In this episode Tony Hines takes a look at superforecasting and AI and how it will change and impact the supply chains of the future.
Super in this sense means better. According to Phillip Tetlock superforecasters consistently make better predictions. They do this avoiding bias, updating as new facts emerge and through their cognitive processes. We examine how forecasts can be better by examining practices and processes used by superforecasters.
There is much potential to employ skills to make better supply chain decisions adopting approaches discussed.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning also offer ways to combine human and computer technologies to improve supply chain management by improving predictions that impact business.
SCHOEMAKER, P. J. H., & TETLOCK, P. E. (2016). Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company’s Judgment. Harvard Business Review, 94(5), 72–78.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Crown Publishers, a division of Penguin Random House LLC, New York, New York, ISBN 978- 0804136693
Power and Prediction. (2023). Developing Leaders, 40, 212–214.
Power and Prediction – The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence, co-authored by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb, HBR Press (Nov 2022) 9781647824198 (ISBN10: 1647824192)